"Not everyone who “saw it coming” actually did"

Last time, I talked about how to change your mind without losing the room.

But there’s another challenge that often shows up when you do:

You know the moment.

A decision doesn’t go to plan.
An outcome surprises you.
And suddenly, a few voices start claiming they predicted it all along.

Sometimes, they did.
But a lot of the time? It’s hindsight bias in action.

Like a Nostradamus prophecy, vague enough that you can make it fit any event after the fact, but never specific enough to change anything before it happened.

We don’t need to pander to those predictions.
And we don’t need to defend ourselves either.

We just need to lead.

That means dealing with the consequences, without rewriting the past.

That question matters.
Because it moves the conversation from blame to sensemaking.
And that’s what complex work needs.

If someone brings new insight, you listen.
If they just want to score points, you move on.

Because leadership isn’t about tracking who was right.
It’s about helping the team face what’s real, right now.

Until next time,
Dermot
​The Messy Middle

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